2015 SWAC/MEAC vs FBS Upset Chances?


Basebone1898

Well-Known Member
As some of you know, I am obsessed with seeing the day when any SWAC team pulls off an upset against a FBS opponent in this era. I have watched the MEAC pull it off with Bethune-Cookman over FIU twice, but I sure would like to see more. I know that we will always have a long shot at winning a FBS game, but so often, we watch our kids get of the bus or plane terrified before the opening kickoff. This season, I don't see anyone pulling off an upset, but there are a few games that caught my eye.


1. North Carolina vs North Carolina A&T

(UNC will be tough for A&T to deal with in the trenches, but their defense was not good last season. They also will have some question at the QB position as their projected starter was out for the spring with an injury. Rod Broadway will be returning home to Chapel Hill and will play ball control football. I can see this game being much close than most experts think.)
My Prediction: UNC 28 NCAT 14
Upset: UNC 21 NCAT 24

2. Miami vs Bethune-Cookman

(Any instate match up is always fun to watch. Bethune-Cookman has proven in the past that they aren't scared to fight the big boys. The have come to Miami and beaten FIU twice in a row and played Miami pretty tough in their last meeting. Yes, Miami is no FIU, but they aren't the U anymore as well. Bethune-Cookman will be going through some new staff blues and position changes this season as well.)
My Prediction: Miami 38 BC 14

Upset: Miami 24 BC 27

3. MTSU vs Jackson State

(JSU has the size to make this a tougher game than most expect, but do they have the coaching staff capable of keeping them in the game? Ivy proved as a freshman proved that he isn't scared of FBS schools as he moved the ball extremely well vs.Tulane, (who would later have one of the best defenses in C-USA that season). MTSU's run defense was terrible last season, but they have plenty of guys returning that have 2 years of starting experience. I expect MTSU to be bowl eligible this season, but JSU really matches up better than most think in the trenches.)
My Prediction: MTSU 35 JSU 17
Upset: MTSU 20 JSU 27

4. Appalachian State vs Howard

(Apps State is in their second year of the FBS ranks. The former FCS powerhouse struggled early last season started out 1-5, but they went on a 6 game winning streak to finish 7-5. They are expected to deal with some transition woes this season again, but they have momentum. Although Howard went 5-7 last season, the Bison went to war with Rutgers in a 38-25 loss and outgained them as well. In 2013, Howard lost to Eastern Michigan 34-24. Howard has a very tough coaching staff who plays to win and won't be on the sidelines just for a check. Apps State isn't really a FBS team on paper as far as their size goes, but they return 10 starters on both sides of the ball that will make things tough for Howard.)
My Prediction: Apps St 49 Howard 24
Upset: Apps St 23 Howard 24

5. California vs Grambling State

(If California's secondary is anything close to what they were last season, then the G-Men could very well put up some points on the scoreboard. If GSU' secondary is anything close to what it was last season, then Cal might put up 50+ points. This could be a fun game to watch as both had the same issues in 2014, but the G-Men must establish some type of running game to keep that clock rolling.)
My Prediction: Cal 55 GSU 28
Upset: Cal 27 GSU 28


What other match up catches your eye?


Louisiana Tech vs Southern
Cincinnati vs Alabama A&M
Geogria Tech vs Alcorn
New Mexico vs Mississippi Valley
Rutgers vs Norfolk State
Air Force vs Morgan State
Colorado State vs Savannhah State
Old Dominion vs Norfolk State
Kent State vs Delaware State
Duke vs North Carolina Central
Boston College vs Howard
Texas State vs PVAMU
Georgia vs Southern
Akron vs Savannah State
FIU vs North Carolina Central
Marshall vs Norfolk State
 
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Jaguar94

Well-Known Member
IMO,
There are only a handful of games which an upset could be achieved.

J-State at MTSU
Norfolk at ODU
Savannah State at Akron
NCCU at FIU
Norfolk State at Marshall
 

JaguarNation99

That's Dr. JN99 to you...
Any discussion of possible upsets should begin with NC Central vs. FIU, which has been one of the worst teams in FBS for several years. Any talk of knocking off a team from a P5 conference is just silly.
 

In_The_662

Deeeeep In The Delta.....
1. La Tech/Southern - Tech will run the ball and they will have the size in the trenches. Worm will have to come up with a scheme to slow them down and make them throw. SU can score on offense but they will have to keep the mistakes down to a minimum. If Quinn can break one early, that could be a big time confidence boost.

2. Air Force/Morgan State - We know the service academies like to run that option but Air Force will throw more than Army and Navy. If Morgan State's defense can slow down that option and force them into throwing, the game could be interesting.

3. JSU/MTSU - JSU has offensive potential with Williams and Ivy but if that MTSU defense slows them down, they will have to run the ball. MTSU is finding their way in C-USA so JSU could catch them slipping for a quarter or two.

4. PV/Texas State - PV could have played with TSU last year with that offense but the defense would have let them down. This year is no different as Simmons will bring a more physical style with Hebert at his disposal. This being an in-state game could give PV enough confidence to keep it close for a while.

5. Valley/New Mexico - Valley is rebuilding as we all know but I think people will see what Comegy has been able to bring to Valley on the O line and defensive line. Valley's best chance to not get ran out of New Mexico is to run a similar plan that we ran against Grambling (Q running which opened up the pass). The Lobos will have an automatic advantage in the trenches and will want to run. The transfers will have to show what they are made off right off the bat.
 

Basebone1898

Well-Known Member
Any discussion of possible upsets should begin with NC Central vs. FIU, which has been one of the worst teams in FBS for several years. Any talk of knocking off a team from a P5 conference is just silly.
It doesn't happen often, but FCS schools have proven that it's not impossible. HBCU's don't play these games to win. It will never happen if we come into the game already defeated. Yes, it's a long shot, but upsets or even close games aren't impossible. One major thing that happens to the SWAC during FBS scheduling is that many struggling P5 program don't schedule top 5 SWAC programs for games. A P5 that struggled last season like Vanderbilt will call Mississippi Valley for a game before Alcorn if they were looking for a SWAC opponent to fill an early week.


There have been a few FCS programs that didn't believe it was silly.

Georgia Southern 26 Florida 20
James Madison 21 Virginia Tech 16
Apps St 34 Michigan 32
E Washington 45 #25 Oregon State 41
NDSU 24 Kansas State 21
McNesse State 53 USF 21
N Iowa 27 Iowa State 20
Towson 33 UConn 18

It's a long shot, but not impossible.
 

JaguarNation99

That's Dr. JN99 to you...
It doesn't happen often, but FCS schools have proven that it's not impossible. HBCU's don't play these games to win. It will never happen if we come into the game already defeated. Yes, it's a long shot, but upsets or even close games aren't impossible. One major thing that happens to the SWAC during FBS scheduling is that many struggling P5 program don't schedule top 5 SWAC programs for games. A P5 that struggled last season like Vanderbilt will call Mississippi Valley for a game before Alcorn if they were looking for a SWAC opponent to fill an early week.


There have been a few FCS programs that didn't believe it was silly.

Georgia Southern 26 Florida 20
James Madison 21 Virginia Tech 16
Apps St 34 Michigan 32
E Washington 45 #25 Oregon State 41
NDSU 24 Kansas State 21
McNesse State 53 USF 21
N Iowa 27 Iowa State 20
Towson 33 UConn 18

It's a long shot, but not impossible.
Yes it has happened, but I'd I'm not mistaken, every upset of a P5 school was by a top 5-10 FCS school. That Appalachian State team that beat Michigan (sigh) could have won several mid-major conferences that year. NDSU has won 4 titles in a row. Our teams are improving as a whole, but we aren't at that level yet. We have a shot at knocking off some mid-majors, but even a team like Cal is going to be a 40 point favorite against GSU.
 

JROCK

Preeminent
I think Southern U. has to have the right game plan to make the LT game interesting. Southern will need long sustain drives to keep LT offense off of the field. I believe LT is replacing all 3 linebackers so if there is a weakness in their defense, it should be there. Perhaps a few slants will work depending on what LT defense is trying to do and if Mike Jones can get behind their defense early it should open up the running game.
 

bluedog

"Leader of Kings"
IMO,
There are only a handful of games which an upset could be achieved.

J-State at MTSU
Norfolk at ODU
Savannah State at Akron
NCCU at FIU
Norfolk State at Marshall
Bruh you really haven't been paying much attention to Norfolk State and you must have been in a coma while watching Savanah

ROTFLMAO! !!!
 
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D3zii

Active Member
BCU has beaten Fiu teo years in a row, & Alcorn should have beat Southern Miss last year , so yes Its not impossible for HBCU's ...

Didn't Morgan State beat Eastern Michigan??
 

number1

Well-Known Member
Yes it has happened, but I'd I'm not mistaken, every upset of a P5 school was by a top 5-10 FCS school. That Appalachian State team that beat Michigan (sigh) could have won several mid-major conferences that year. NDSU has won 4 titles in a row. Our teams are improving as a whole, but we aren't at that level yet. We have a shot at knocking off some mid-majors, but even a team like Cal is going to be a 40 point favorite against GSU.
And that Georgia Southern win was against a 4-8 Florida team with a horrible coach.
 

Basebone1898

Well-Known Member
Yes it has happened, but I'd I'm not mistaken, every upset of a P5 school was by a top 5-10 FCS school. That Appalachian State team that beat Michigan (sigh) could have won several mid-major conferences that year. NDSU has won 4 titles in a row. Our teams are improving as a whole, but we aren't at that level yet. We have a shot at knocking off some mid-majors, but even a team like Cal is going to be a 40 point favorite against GSU.

That Apps State team would have only had a chance to win the Sun Belt. They weren't built to complete a full FBS schedule. They lost to Georgia Southern and Wofford, and struggled with Furman .

You are right, but that goes back to my example of struggling P5 schools not calling top 3 SWAC teams for a game. The 2004 Mississippi State team wouldn't dare have scheduled Alcorn or even JSU that season. They knew there offense was going to struggle before the season began, so they played against Maine and loss 9-7.

I have been guilty of bashing our conference too much, but when you look at, other FCS conferences get better deals when it comes to FBS games. You didn't see ULL begging SU for a game when their offensive was the worst in all of FBS. You didn't see ULM calling Grambling for a game during the Bruce Eugene era. Both seasons that ULM played GSU, it was against New coaching staffs. Tulane only calls SWAC opponents after they have put together two good recruiting classes or know that they have and experienced group. However, the will take risks against McNesse or SLU any year.
 
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Jimmyoliver

Well-Known Member
Honestly schools like Jackson state, grambling, and tenn state if given the resources Of FBS, would be very well CUSA OR Sun Belt ready. These schools do well with the talent tht they get on the FCS level. With that being said I see Jsu upsetting MTSU. We are loaded at all positions and on the bright side most of the position players have had atleast one year of playing together on top of the defense strength being the d-line and second strength being tht of the MLB so we I see an upset. If you recall Jsu moved the ball offensively but couldn't do well in the red zone , well the red zone is where you really need those good offensive lineman but we lack the depth there so the situation is not as bad as most see it. I also see Alcorn giving Georgia a run for there money. I believe Mississippi especially will be well represented on ESPN Sept 6th .
 
Marshall last year probably could have given some of the schools in SEC trouble last year with that Offense and great Defense.... Marshall lost 1 game last year 67-66. They stomped everybody they played by 14-35 points
 

Jaguar94

Well-Known Member
Bruh you really haven't been paying much attention to Norfolk State and you must have been in a coma while watching Savanah

ROTFLMAO! !!!
You're right. The only game a HBCU might win is the games against FIU. Akron would be an upset if it were anyone other than Savannah.
 
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