"Assuming that Obama wins all the states that have been won by every Democrat for the last 20 years, including both Gore and Kerry (242 electoral votes) and Romney wins all the states that McCain won in 2008 (180 electoral votes), that leaves 10 states: CO, FL, IA, IN, NC, NH, NM, NV, OH, VA (116 electoral votes). With those ten states, there are 1,024 possible combinations (2^10 = 1,024). Out of these 1,024 scenarios, Obama wins 939 of them (91.7%) and Romney wins 85 of them (8.3%). All 85 scenarios require Mitt Romney to win Florida, a state in which Obama leads according to all the latest polls, including +7 points in the latest Quinnipiac poll and +3 points in the latest Rasmussen poll."