In McNair's favor are the MVP award (to go with the one he should have had in '02), a super-bowl appearance, and the respect of the players, administrators, fans, and writers that he is one of the best players to ever play football. He really transcends his position and most people see him as more than just a quarterback but as a "football player" similar to the way Jim Brown and Walter Payton were viewed.
But with that said, I don't think he is a shoo-in yet. I agree with JR that he needs a few more quality years; a super-bowl wouldn't hurt matters but it won't matter if he continues to play and produce like he has been.
Moon will probably get in but I don't see it as a "done deal." I wouldn't be surprised if some hold his canadian league days against him.
And althought I agree with JRock's comments about what Doug did for Tampa Bay, he won't get in. He doesn't have the stats or enough quality years.
Regards.