Bama St weighing their options (possibly I-AA Playoffs)

[cetmo]

Hornets hoping for help
By Ben Thomas
Montgomery Advertiser

While their team continues to play a frustrating waiting game to see if it will have a chance to play for Southwestern Athletic Conference title, the Alabama State coaching staff is looking at all options.

The Hornets (7-2 overall, 5-1 in the SWAC) have won seven straight games since opening the season with two losses. However, because one of those losses came to Alcorn State, they can't control their own destiny in the race for the East Division title.

Alabama State must win its conference finale Saturday at winless Mississippi Valley State and hope Alcorn (5-4, 4-1) loses one of its final two games ? at Jackson State this weekend or at home against Arkansas Pine Bluff the next week.

"It's tough right now, having the season we're having but having that Alcorn State game hanging over our heads," ASU offensive coordinator Johnnie Cole said. "It seems like it is going to come back and bite us. That's how the ball bounces.

"The only thing we can do is control ourselves. Again, we like to focus on us instead of focusing on other people. Of course, we check those box scores. And at the game (vs. Clark Atlanta), we had someone calling their stadium and giving us a play-by-play. Other than that, there isn't much we can do."

Alcorn State defeated Alabama A&M last week, 40-35, to keep the upper hand in the East race. However, the biggest game of the Braves' season will likely come this week against Jackson State (6-3, 4-2).

The Tigers defeated Prairie View 38-20 last week and still have dreams of forcing a three-way tie in the East. On the other hand, Arkansas Pine Bluff ? Alcorn's final hurdle ? is just 1-4 in league play and likely would have little motivation.

"I see where Pine Bluff is not playing very well. I think Jackson State is really probably our last hope," Alabama State head coach L.C. Cole said. "They are playing well. This is a big game for them. They can still have a winning season. They have a lot to play for."

However, if neither Jackson State nor Pine Bluff can derail Alcorn State, there may be another option for the Hornets.

Alabama State, ranked No. 23 in the latest Division I-AA poll released on Monday, could be invited to the Division I-AA playoffs and have a shot at playing for a national title.

It's probably a long shot, but it's not out of the question.

"It would probably be the strangest thing that could ever happen in football ? to not win a division championship in your conference, but then turn around and win a national championship," L.C. Cole said.

Ironically, the Hornets only could play in the playoffs if they did not win a division title. The SWAC championship game in Birmingham is scheduled for Dec. 1 ? the same day the I-AA playoffs begin. The SWAC division winners are bound to play in that title game regardless of their records.

"The SWAC championship is very important because that's what we came here to win," Cole said. "If it doesn't happen and we got into the playoffs, then maybe we could set our goals on another championship. Certainly, if you could win the I-AA national championship then that would be all the better."

Sixteen teams are invited to the I-AA playoffs.

Eight conference champions receive automatic bids. Those conferences are the Atlantic 10, Big Sky, Gateway, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern and Southland.

The remaining eight teams are selected at large by the Division I-AA football committee, assisted by four regional advisory committees. The four regions are the Central, East, South and West.

All of the SWAC teams, of course, are included in the South. The last SWAC team to be invited to the I-AA playoffs was Jackson State in 1998. The Tigers were 9-2 that year ? the same record ASU would have if it finishes with wins over MVSU and Tuskegee on Thanksgiving Day.

One thing that may hurt Alabama State is its schedule. The NCAA manual says the committee may give more consideration to those teams having played all Division I opponents. ASU has three Division II opponents (Johnson C. Smith, Clark Atlanta and Tuskegee) on its schedule.

 

[G-QUE]

Tony Moss the I-AA Sportwriter and his "Cronies" have it all figured out!!

I?m not a big fan of sample brackets, but in this case such a prognostication might be a good tool for the many I-AA fans trying to get a handle on the new system. If everything plays out the way it should, with all favored teams defeating underdogs (yeah, like that?ll happen) in the next two weeks, here?s a guess at what the 16-team bracket could look like.

Northwestern State (8-3, 4-2) at #1 Montana (11-1, 7-0)
Northern Arizona (8-3, 5-2) at Sam Houston State (9-2, 5-1)

McNeese State (8-3, 5-1) at #4 Villanova (9-2, 8-1)
Hofstra (9-2, 7-2) at Lehigh (10-0, 7-0)

Eastern Kentucky (8-2, 5-1) at #3 Northern Iowa (9-2, 6-1)
Western Kentucky (8-3, 5-2) at Eastern Illinois (9-1, 6-0)

Florida A&M (7-3, 7-1) at #2 Georgia Southern (10-1, 7-1)
Rhode Island (9-2, 7-2) at Furman (9-2, 7-1)

The bracket will be fixed, as always, and will not be re-shuffled after each round to benefit higher seeds as in the NHL playoffs. There will simply be no way to regionalize some of the matchups, since three of the four teams in the northeast are likely to come from the same conference (the Atlantic 10), and the Southland is also a solid bet for three bids.

This week is the second in a three-part series studying the condition of the road to the I-AA playoffs. The following 28 teams are ranked according to their likelihood to appear in the playoffs, not by potential seeding. Teams that have already qualified for the playoffs by virtue of their league?s automatic bid are marked with an asterisk (*).

*1. Montana (9-1, 6-0 Big Sky)

THE GAMES: at Montana State (11/17); Idaho (11/24)

THE DEAL: Montana clinched the Big Sky?s automatic bid by defeating Weber State this past week, and is now playing for the top seed. A loss to Montana State would probably yield that number one berth, but a defeat at the hands of I-A Idaho should not have a negative impact. A team from the Gateway, OVC, or Southland will travel to Missoula on Dec. 1.

*2. Northern Iowa (8-2, 6-1 Gateway)

THE GAME: Cal Poly (11/17)

THE DEAL: UNI received the Gateway?s automatic bid by virtue of its win at Western Kentucky, and is in strong position for a top four seed. If for some reason the Panthers don?t get a top four, the new regional format could mean a Dec. 1 date with Montana.

*3. Eastern Illinois (8-1, 5-0 Ohio Valley)

THE GAME: Murray State (11/17)

THE DEAL: EIU is in as the OVC champ and is still in the mix for a top four seed. If Bob Spoo?s team is passed over for a top four, it too could get shipped to Missoula, for what would be the second straight year.

*4. Lehigh (9-0, 6-0 Patriot)

THE GAME: Lafayette (11/17)

THE DEAL: Lehigh is one of the few places where the lack of seeding could help, since the Mountain Hawks draw well and that is expected to be a chief factor in choosing first-round home sites. Lehigh should start requesting game tapes from every school in the Atlantic 10, since the Mountain Hawks have no shot of opening with a team outside that league.

5. Georgia Southern (9-1, 6-1 Southern)

THE GAME: at Wofford (11/24)

THE DEAL: GSU is still in line for No. 2 seed, provided it receives the automatic SoCon bid that would come with a win at Wofford. The Eagles are likely to draw the MEAC champ in the first round, with a rematch against Furman a strong possibility in the quarterfinals.

6. Furman (7-2, 6-1 Southern)

THE GAMES: at Chattanooga (11/17); at Presbyterian (11/24)

THE DEAL: The new format will probably put the screws to Furman, since the Paladins will get cheated out of what would have been a five or six seed and instead thrown into a giant cauldron with 11 other teams. A first-round home game still looks like a strong possibility lest the selection committee seeks its fair share of hate mail.

7. Hofstra (8-2, 7-2 Atlantic 10)

THE GAME: at Liberty (11/17)

THE DEAL: Hofstra will be one of the field?s more intriguing cases when host institutions are determined. The Pride?s home attendance is atrocious, but the school?s regional TV deal with Fox Sports New York may be a consideration for a committee attempting to boost the profile of the playoffs. Hofstra/Lehigh looks like a good bet, but which team hosts that game will be subject to a great deal of debate.

8. Northern Arizona (8-2, 5-2 Big Sky)

THE GAME: at Oregon State (11/17)

THE DEAL: The Lumberjacks are a sure thing for an at-large berth after their Sac State win, and seem destined to play a Southland Football League team. NAU traveling to play Sam Houston State would seem to make some sense at this point.

9. Sam Houston State (8-2, 4-1 Southland)

THE GAME: at Southwest Texas (11/17)

THE DEAL: The Bearkats may get some consideration for a top four seed, but the fact that SHSU is unlikely to get the Southland?s automatic bid makes that prospect seem not so bright. SHSU/NAU is an obvious matchup.

10. Western Kentucky (7-3, 4-2 Gateway)

THE GAME: Southern Illinois (11/17)

THE DEAL: The Hilltoppers should be in with a win this week, and would appear destined to play an OVC team in the first round. A trip to SoCon country is another possibility.

11. McNeese State (6-3, 3-1 Southland)

THE GAMES: at Nicholls State (11/17); at Jacksonville State (11/24)

THE DEAL: The Cowboys need to win both (they should) and have Stephen F. Austin lose to Northwestern State (they should) to get the SFL?s automatic bid. Tommy Tate?s team probably would not have received a top eight seed under the previous format, but MSU?s top-notch following makes the Cowboys a candidate to host a playoff game or two.

12. Villanova (7-2, 6-1 Atlantic 10)

THE GAMES: Delaware (11/17); at William & Mary (11/24)

THE DEAL: The Wildcats put themselves in great shape with this past Saturday?s win at Hofstra, but the logjam at the top of the A-10 means that to get in, VU probably still needs to win out and receive the automatic bid. Despite the team?s loss to Division II New Haven, an 8-1 record in the Atlantic 10 will open the door to a top four seed. Failing that, a matchup with nearby Lehigh is a possibility.

13. Eastern Kentucky (7-2, 4-1 Ohio Valley)

THE GAME: at Tennessee State (11/17)

THE DEAL: Tennessee State?s dismantling at the hands of Tennessee Tech this past week puts EKU in prime position to receive the Ohio Valley?s first at-large bid. If they get matched up with Western Kentucky in the first round, the Colonels should host due to their greater amount of support. A trip to Northern Iowa or Furman could also be in the cards.

14. Florida A&M (6-3, 6-1 MEAC)

THE GAME: Bethune-Cookman (11/17)

THE DEAL: North Carolina A&T?s loss to Hampton gives the Rattlers the inside track on the MEAC?s automatic bid. If they get it, a trip to Georgia Southern seems like a foregone conclusion.

15. Northwestern State (7-3, 3-2 Southland)

THE GAME: Stephen F. Austin (11/17)

THE DEAL: Though they?ll probably be the Southland?s third entry, the Demons? 8-3 record would stand up better than any of the other probable bubble teams around the country. That win over TCU still holds a lot of weight, and rightly so. NSU won?t have a fun first-round trip, but they should be in the field with a win this week.

16. Rhode Island (7-2, 5-2 Atlantic 10)

THE GAMES: at Massachusetts (11/17); Northeastern (11/24)

THE DEAL: It would be very difficult to keep the Rams out at 9-2, but URI hasn?t been playing well enough of late to make that seem like a sure thing. If Maine also wins its final game, how the Rams? resume? stacks up to the Black Bears? will be important. I give the edge to Rhody, which will have one more win and victories over Hofstra and William & Mary, despite the head-to-head loss to Maine.

17. Maine (7-2, 6-2 Atlantic 10)

THE GAME: at New Hampshire (11/17)

THE DEAL: Maine didn?t pick up much ground this past week, and is probably still in need of another loss for any of the Atlantic 10 trio of Villanova, Rhode Island, and William & Mary. Though they defeated Rhode Island head-to-head, the Black Bears? can?t point to a win better that URI?s Hofstra or William & Mary victories.

18. William & Mary (6-3, 5-2 Atlantic 10)

THE GAMES: at Richmond (11/17); Villanova (11/24)

THE DEAL: The Tribe would be a solid bet at 8-3, but their narrow win over lowly James Madison this past week made W&M look a bit vulnerable. If they win out, Jimmye Laycock?s team should be one of the last two teams in the field.

19. Appalachian State (7-3, 6-2 Southern)

THE GAME: West Virginia Tech (11/17)

THE DEAL: They are still very much in the thick of the playoff hunt, but the Mountaineers need a handful of bubble teams to lose to find themselves in the bracket. The reputation of both ASU and the Southern Conference will have to be a credit to the team?s plight, since a glaring lack of benchmark wins will exist.

20. North Carolina A&T (7-2, 4-2 MEAC)

THE GAMES: at South Carolina State (11/17); Delaware State (11/24)

THE DEAL: A&T blew it again, with Maurice Hicks? injury leading to a loss to Hampton that severely hurts the Aggies? playoff and MEAC title chances. A&T should still win out, but whether a 9-2 record out of the MEAC is good enough this year remains to be seen. The Aggies probably need two wins and some help.

21. Tennessee State (7-2, 3-2 Ohio Valley)

THE GAMES: Eastern Kentucky (11/17); vs. Jackson State (11/22)

THE DEAL: TSU suffered a troubling meltdown at Tennessee Tech, a loss that casts the Tigers? playoff aspirations into serious jeopardy. If they somehow recover and win their last two, James Reese?s club will merit strong consideration. But after their performance this past Saturday, that seems like a long shot.

22. Stephen F. Austin (6-3, 4-1 Southland)

THE GAMES: at Northwestern State (11/17); at Texas Tech (11/24)

THE DEAL: SFA is in trouble, needing a win over Northwestern State and a Sam Houston State loss at Southwest Texas to get the Southland?s automatic. Neither is likely to happen, and anything less probably won?t help the ?Jacks, who won?t finish better than 7-4 after traveling to Texas Tech.

23. Grambling State (8-1, 5-1 SWAC)

THE GAME: vs. Southern (11/24)

THE DEAL: It is still a good idea to talk about GSU, which is in the unique position of needing a loss to be considered for the playoffs. A win puts Doug Williams? team in the Dec. 1 SWAC Championship and out of the playoff mix. The Tigers? power ranking might not be good enough to get the team in at 8-2, and the selection committee won?t do any favors for a league that doesn?t want to be involved with the playoffs to begin with. A long shot.

24. Youngstown State (7-2, 5-2 Gateway)

THE GAMES: Elon (11/17); at Marshall (11/24)

THE DEAL: You can argue the strength of their conference until you?re red and white in the face, but the bottom line is that YSU?s playoff resume? simply won?t be as strong as many other bubble teams. The Penguins need just about every other at-large candidate to lose in the next two weeks if they hope to get in at 8-3. A 9-2 record, which would include a victory at Marshall, will likely be YSU?s only prayer.

25. Tennessee Tech (6-3, 3-2 Ohio Valley)

THE GAME: at Tennessee-Martin (11/15)

THE DEAL: Tech has played well in the past two weeks, with a 50-point win over Tennessee State on Saturday keeping the Golden Eagles on the long shot board. But two Division II wins and a 10-game schedule won?t garner much serious consideration for TTU, which needs about a dozen teams to lose out in order to receive a shot.

26. Bethune-Cookman (6-3, 5-2 MEAC)

THE GAME: at Florida A&M (11/17)

THE DEAL: Since the Wildcats play in the conference no one wants to win, they are mathematically alive for the league title and the automatic bid it would bring. A win over FAMU and additional losses for A&T and Hampton would give B-CC an unlikely spot in the playoffs.

27. Hampton (6-4, 5-2 MEAC)

THE GAME: Morgan State (11/17)

THE DEAL: Hampton needs a very strange first-place tie in order to get the MEAC automatic. The Pirates have to finish atop the standings along with Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman, and for North Carolina A&T to lose again and finish fourth. Since all three tied teams would be 1-1 against each other, the tie-breaker would rest with Hampton, which would be the only team among the three to defeat A&T. It?s unlikely, but mathematically possible.

28. Alabama State (7-2, 5-1 SWAC)

THE GAMES: Mississippi Valley (11/17); Tuskegee (11/22)

THE DEAL: ASU could go 9-2 and still finish out of the SWAC Championship race, by virtue of a head-to-head loss at Alcorn State (currently 4-1 in the SWAC) at the beginning of the year. If that happens, the committee might talk about L.C. Cole?s team briefly, until their two D-II wins and low power ranking are factored in.

Comments? Criticism? Applause? Send your comments to Tony Moss



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