Bond markets are sending one big global recession warning

[Olde Hornet]

Bond markets are sending one big global recession warning

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/14/bond-markets-are-sending-one-big-global-recession-warning.html

The U.S. bond market just flashed what could be its biggest warning yet of a coming recession, and it is not alone.

The spread between the 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year yield flipped so that the 2-year is now higher than the benchmark 10-year yield for the first time since June, 2007. Other parts of the curve have already inverted, but traditionally the 2-year to 10-year spread is the most widely watched by market players.

The U.S. 30-year bond yield fell to a record low early Wednesday, touching 2.015% for the first time ever, falling through its prior record of 2.08%. Yields across Europe fell, and the German 10-year bund touched a new low of negative 0.65%.

An inverted yield curve has been a reliable recession indicator, but it does not always precede a recession and the length of time before a recession occurs has varied. According to Credit Suisse, the average length of time since the late 1990s for a recession to occur after inversion was 22 months.

 

[pvdogteam]

Bond markets are sending one big global recession warning

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/14/bond-markets-are-sending-one-big-global-recession-warning.html

The U.S. bond market just flashed what could be its biggest warning yet of a coming recession, and it is not alone.

The spread between the 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year yield flipped so that the 2-year is now higher than the benchmark 10-year yield for the first time since June, 2007. Other parts of the curve have already inverted, but traditionally the 2-year to 10-year spread is the most widely watched by market players.

The U.S. 30-year bond yield fell to a record low early Wednesday, touching 2.015% for the first time ever, falling through its prior record of 2.08%. Yields across Europe fell, and the German 10-year bund touched a new low of negative 0.65%.

An inverted yield curve has been a reliable recession indicator, but it does not always precede a recession and the length of time before a recession occurs has varied. According to Credit Suisse, the average length of time since the late 1990s for a recession to occur after inversion was 22 months.

I was just listening to this story on NPR today. This doesn't look good, this 45 guy is going to tank the market

 

[Olde Hornet]

I wonder if we are headed to negative interest rates?????

 

[Olde Hornet]

Main yield curve inverts as 2-year yield tops 10-year rate, triggering recession warning

Main yield curve inverts as 2-year yield tops 10-year rate, triggering recession warning

A recession occurs, on average, 22 months following such an inversion, according to Credit Suisse.

www.cnbc.com

he yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note broke below the 2-year rate early Wednesday, an odd bond market phenomenon that has been a reliable, albeit early, indicator for economic recessions.

The yield on U.S. 30-year bond also turned heads on Wall Street during Wednesday’s session as it fell to an all-time low, dropping past its prior record notched in summer 2016. The two historic moves coming in tandem show that investors are increasingly worried, and indeed preparing for, a slowdown in both the U.S. and global economies.

Earlier Wednesday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was at 1.623%, below the 2-year yield at 1.634%. In practice, that means that investors are better compensated for loaning the U.S. over two years than they are for loaning for 10 years. The yields steepened later in the session, pushing the 10-year rate back above that of the 2-year note.