Olde Hornet
Well-Known Member
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/a-trump-win-could-cost-investors-1-3-trillion-213513356.html
The market capitalization of the S&P 500 is about $18.6 trillion, so a 7% drop would slash about $1.3 trillion off the value of companies in the index. If you include the 4% gain investors might otherwise book from a Clinton win, the total cost of a Trump win would be more than $2 trillion.
Trump supporters will undoubtedly argue with the assumptions and methodology that produce such a forecast, and predicting the direction of the stock market is, of course, risky business. But the Macro Advisers forecast for stocks mirrors other analysis of the Trump economic plan. Moody’s Analytics, for instance, predicted it would kill 7 million jobs and cause a recession. Another analysis, by Oxford Economics, found the impact of Trump’s plan less severe, but still said it would induce a slowdown.
The market capitalization of the S&P 500 is about $18.6 trillion, so a 7% drop would slash about $1.3 trillion off the value of companies in the index. If you include the 4% gain investors might otherwise book from a Clinton win, the total cost of a Trump win would be more than $2 trillion.
Trump supporters will undoubtedly argue with the assumptions and methodology that produce such a forecast, and predicting the direction of the stock market is, of course, risky business. But the Macro Advisers forecast for stocks mirrors other analysis of the Trump economic plan. Moody’s Analytics, for instance, predicted it would kill 7 million jobs and cause a recession. Another analysis, by Oxford Economics, found the impact of Trump’s plan less severe, but still said it would induce a slowdown.